Discretion does not seem bad for a reduction of rates when there are extraordinary profits

After the last decision adopted by the Government to keep the fees of gasoline and diesel for October, the president of ANCAP, Alejandro Stipanicic, gave his point of view on the issue on the issue.“We are going to have an order gain of US $ 30 million with the export of energy to Brazil.What is better?What Ancap is left with that gain or that gain serves to finance a mattress so as not to increase fuels?It doesn't seem crazy, ”he said.The head of the entity also referred to the future of the tile refinery, the plans to promote the production of green hydrogen and the process to add a private investor to the Portland business.What follows is a summary of the interview that Stipanicic had with the observer.

Did you surprised the decision of the Executive Power to keep the fuel rates frozen in October despite the report of importation parity of the URERSA? It is a decision that was within the powers and as far as possible.As ancap really had very good numbers in the first semester despite everything, it seems reasonable that that mattress that was generated with genuine results to put relief in the economy is used.Another option could be that, as is an extraordinary income, for example, it could have appealed to reduce indebtedness and that would lower interest load. Did that be handled? In March or April of this year we had asked authorization from the Executive Power to borrow in USA in US$ 40 million once, and at US $ 100 million a couple of months later.Last year, despite everything that happened, Ancap fell debt for US $ 45 million, and if this year we had taken the US $ 140 million that we asked the Executive Branch to arrive at the end of the year with about US $ 20millions above the level of indebtedness that Ancap had in 2019.What happens is that the result of the first semester was so good that at this time we are providing that we are going to go down, in addition to the US $ 45 million last year, US $ 79 million more in 2021.Then, in fact we went down debt and we also had enough those US $ 24 million that came as an extraordinary result of the export of energy (from UTE) to Brazil.All the capital payments that we could do this year we are going to do, and it will not be necessary to renew debt, at least for this year.It is possible, and we have already asked the Executive Power to authorize us to extend the authorization until next year to cover any eventuality with the initial US $ 40 million.But, for example, at this time we are discarding the additional US $ 100 million.

A debate was generated after the decision of the Executive Power because it gives the impression that confusing signs are being given.He was appealing to a more transparent price system and the discretionary part appeared incorporating a new element that had not been announced as a variable.Can this harm or affect the image of the process of going to a PPI? What I can say is that one thing is discretion to generate forced results, and another thing is to transfer a positive extraordinary result to the pubic.It does not seem crazy to use discretion to make a reduction or a non -increase in a bullish scenario, when there is an export of energy to Brazil that was not within anyone's plans.Take advantage of an extraordinary export to contain prices is as if we had had a stability fund that was not planned.In that sense, it doesn't seem bad.Beyond, obviously the government promised to apply a system and apply it to a rajatabla.Of course, in this circumstance it is not applying it, but you have to understand the excuse you use and the valid reason behind.We think that for the whole year we will have an order gain of US $ 30 million with the export of energy to Brazil.What is better?What Ancap is left with that gain or that gain serves to finance a mattress so as not to increase fuels?It doesn't seem crazy.Was the effect on the purchases of UTE?.Price indicators and refining margins change a bit and the spred (margin) that we have with UTE sales lowered a little.With the volumes now planned, of US $ 24 million in the first semester, we would be thinking about US $ 32 million throughout the year.That is, upload US $ 8 million more at least of profit in sales to UTE.

Diego Battiste

Es muy difícil hacer futurología con las tarifas, pero se está viendo un escenario con un precio del crudo tonificado, en el eje de los US$ 80 por barril. Ancap hace sus previsiones de compra con antelación y el precio actual no necesariamente tiene relación directa con el precio en surtidor de hoy. ¿Cómo está hoy calzado Ancap y cuál es la situación pensando en el cierre del año?Tenemos una indicación de precio de venta que es a paridad de importación del 25 al 25 de cada mes. Tenemos un descalce en cuanto a nuestros costos de producción y el precio de venta. Fijamos el costo de producción entre dos y dos meses y medio antes del mes de venta que se fija más adelante. Si el precio internacional va subiendo, nuestro costo va a ser menor al costo comparable del precio de venta. Si los precios –internacionales– bajan, el costo relativo va a pesar más que el precio de venta. Entonces, en los próximos meses debemos esperar que se mantenga la indicación de precios que tenemos en los últimos meses, que es con un spread con margen de refinación más o menos constante. No deberíamos tener problema, pero no sé qué va a pasar con la gasolina y el gasoil en el mercado internacional. Está en llamas toda Europa por el precio de los combustibles con estos niveles, que son muy altos.En Ancap se ha planteado la necesidad de contar con coberturas para el valor de los inventarios. ¿Cómo viene eso?Seguimos avanzando, lo que pasa es que el mercado está tan inestable que la prima para pagar la cobertura por el volumen que tenemos que cubrir es muy alto y nos consume casi todo el margen de refinación, casi la mitad en promedio. Entonces, es como asumir un riesgo muy grande de un costo que nadie lo reconoce. Estamos tan finos en los números con los márgenes que nos fija la Ursea, que si nosotros contratamos esa cobertura incurrimos en costos que no podemos cubrir. Distinto sería si estuviésemos en el régimen anterior y el Poder Ejecutivo nos dice: ‘mira que el precio de venta va a quedar congelado por seis meses’. Si el precio de venta queda congelado por seis meses, ahí sí teníamos un indicativo atractivo como para decir ‘vamos a cubrir el costo del crudo’.Esta semana la empresa presentó su plan para promover la producción de hidrógeno verde enfocado a la exportación. En general, ¿cómo están viendo el negocio de la refinación a 20 o 30 años y cómo se prepara Ancap?El lanzamiento sobre producción de hidrógeno verde a partir del offshore (mar) es parte de la visión que tenemos para sustituir el negocio de la refinación. La Agencia de Información Energética de EEUU estima que para 2050 el energético más vendido en EEUU va a seguir siendo el combustible fósil, y que por primera vez en 2050, la demanda va a ser menor a la de 2019. O sea, en el 2050 llegaríamos a niveles prepandemia. Es una primera comprobación de que las refinerías van a seguir existiendo en el mundo y que demanda de productos fósiles va a seguir existiendo en un largo plazo. El tema es que no va a ser para siempre y cuánto se va a ver afectada la demanda mundial de combustibles fósiles con todas las restricciones que se están planteando en muchos países desarrollados y de alto consumo. Ancap tiene que seguir manteniendo el negocio de la refinación y lo tiene que hacer cada vez más sustentable, tanto desde el punto de vista ecológico como económico. Y hay que tener un plan B. Uno de esos planes es la operación y la producción de hidrógeno verde para exportar o para comercializar en el mercado interno. La visión que tenemos es la de generar condiciones adecuadas para que venga un privado y haga la inversión, haga su negocio para exportación, y que el país se cobre con hidrógeno para introducir en la matriz energética local. Es una idea que fácilmente puede llevar 10 años para que se concrete.

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In the medium term, do you have to make an important decision regarding investment to maintain the refinery of the operational tile? We will have a maintenance stop in 2023 to replace part of the critical equipment of the refinery.In the next 10 years I think it will be the largest work needed in the refinery mandatorily.The upper cricking reactor with cyclones will be changed.It is a very challenging engineering work, both in time and cost.But that is going to leave the CRACKING 0 KM to continue working many more years.Cricking is the heart of the refinery.Then we have process units that are very new, such as toping and empty, which is where oil enters and that are robust units with investment needs, as happens in all refinery stoppages.For example, if I compare it with the current Portland oven in Paysandú, if we want to continue working in environmental conditions we need US $ 14 million in the short term to comply with the regulations.And if we want to carry the Paysandú oven to a more reliable operational level are another US $ 10 million or US $ 12 million than in the amount of Paysandú assets is very relevant.That in the refinery does not happen.

A few weeks ago the decision was announced to incorporate a private partner for the Portland business.What is the work route that the company has been raised? Possibly at the end of the month we are opening the registration so that the interested parties can visit the plants and access technical information.Meanwhile, we are beginning to process the request to the Executive Power for a special procedure according to the Tocaf.It will be a competitive procedure that has to have the agreement of the State Purchasing Regulatory Agency and the Court of Accounts.It is a procedure very similar to that used in the 1990s for association with Loma Negra in Portland.A term is introduced in which the possible bidders put their list of requirements to meet the ANCAP requirements.That is considered and the minimum common multiple of all bidders to assemble a sheet that is as attractive as possible for the greatest amount of bidders is made.There are interested, they are first -line companies.A reasonable time for offers can be the end of the first semester of next year.Then there is the contract signing and the consolidation of the association, which can take a few more months.We think between 8 and 15 months to close the process.

In what situation is the oil exploration in the offshore and what perspective does it have? The open Uruguay round is still valid and there have been oil companies that continue to be interested in the information of the basins that Uruguay has.There has not been a new proposal.In November another period opens to receive proposals for exploration.It is an initiative that is still valid and that there are always contacts with top -level companies.Today there are current contracts for the marketing of acquired data, but not exploration.